"The Blank Swan: The End of Probability" is like these...
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"Possibility is a metaphysical notion. It doesn't exist. It is based on the assumption that the world (or a part) is imaginable in a different state than one is obtaining. Or rather the assumption is that different states of the world [possible states] can be imagined besides the present one and surveyed as we speak" (Blank... [Read All]
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one goes to the market to test one's capacity for change
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"Black Swan is not a highly improbable event, as Taleb claim, but simply a case of changing the context" (Blank Swan)
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"Contingency is the notion that different things may or can happen all the time and that things are not what they are by necessity. Contingency is real and it exists. It is not metaphysical. Let us call contingency the capacity of the world to turn out differently (other than expected) at any juncture, for there is no... [Read All]
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can we talk about options (what difference they make) without using the notions of possibility and probability
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